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What are the risks?

See below for more information on the top risks in the Thames Valley. These risks may not be the highest risks by impact but are the most likely risks that people in the Thames Valley may have to deal with and prepare for. For more detailed information how to prepare for risk and respond to emergencies see our practical guide ARE YOU READY BOOKLET

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  • Flooding

    Flooding can have a devastating and long term impact on people’s lives. There are three main types of flooding seen in the Thames Valley:

    • Fluvial Flooding; rivers and streams, where waterways overflow their banks into surrounding areas 
    • Pluvial Flooding; surface water (where rainfall overwhelms drainage systems)
    • Groundwater flooding; when the water table rises and reaches ground level, water starts to emerge on the surface and can cause flooding.

    The Environment Agency is the lead agency for flooding from main rivers and the sea. Lead Local Flood Authorities (LLFA) are lead agency with regards to the flood risk from surface water and groundwater. Water companies work with LLFAs to help manage surface water flooding.

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    The winter flooding of 2013/14 impacted the whole of the Thames Valley, directly impacting many individuals and businesses and causing traffic and rail disruption. Over the coming years, climate change is likely to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events and this is likely to raise the risk of flooding in the UK.

    Impacts

    Consequences

    • risk to life (people and animals) 
    • damage to property, businesses, agricultural land, roads, structures and infrastructure 
    • pollution and contamination of local environments 
    • long-term damage to tourism, businesses and agriculture 
    • damage to critical national infrastructure
    • disruption to essential services, particularly transport, water supply, energy and communications
    • flooding of properties 
    • evacuation and shelter of residents or employees of homes and businesses 
    • provision of accommodation for those whose homes are flooded 
    • unrecoverable damage to businesses 
    • long-term psychological and health impacts 
    • long-term restoration and recovery issues for homes and businesses.

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • Identification of what areas could be affected by flood water and who is at risk, including damage to local and critical national infrastructure
    • Strategic planning and production of multi-agency plans to manage flooding and assist with a co-ordinated response by emergency responders to flooding
    • Development of ways and means of alerting the public as early as possible when there is a significant flood risk. 
    • Developing flood rescue and assistance for those who become isolated by flooding

    For further advice and help, see;

  • Severe weather

    The United Kingdom does experience severe weather and due to climate change, we are likely to see an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in the UK. Severe weather events we plan for in the Thames Valley include; 

    • Storms and gales with damaging wind speeds, heavy rain and possible lightning
    • Low (sub-zero) temperatures and heavy snow for prolonged periods 
    • Heatwaves with high temperatures lasting several days, harming peoples’ health 
    • Drought as a result of a lack of rainfall over several years, leading to water shortages

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    The impacts and consequences of severe weather are varied, some common issues include road and travel disruptions, damage and disruption to basic utilities, and damage to property. These have a knock-on consequence to individuals, businesses and the ability for organisations to deliver essential functions to the community. It may take several days for business and services to resume normal supply.

    Impacts

    Consequences

    • fatalities and casualties (physical and psychological), particularly among vulnerable groups (such as older adults) 
    • evacuation and shelter of residents or employees of homes and businesses 
    • widespread damage to property and infrastructure 
    • disruption to essential services, particularly transport, water supply, energy and communications  
    • increased hospital admissions and additional pressures on healthcare services
    • disruption to Transport network, communications, critical services and supply chains
    • unrecoverable damage to businesses 
    • environmental damage and clean up
    • long-term psychological and physical health consequences
    • long-term restoration and recovery issues for homes and businesses.

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • Production of multi-agency plans to manage severe weather events.
    • Consideration of weather forecasts prior to any large events in the Thames Valley area.
    • Receiving and distributing early notifications of severe weather

    For further advice and help, see;

  • Fuel Loss

    All organisations rely to some extent on fuel, whether it is for getting staff to work, distributing products or providing services. The availability of fuel within the UK is generally very good, however there have been examples within recent years of brief disruptions to supply on both a regional and national basis. A disruption could be caused by a number of factors, including scarcity of supply, a technical problem with part of the fuel supply infrastructure, industrial action or public protest. In the event of such a disruption to supply, it is also possible that stocks could be further depleted through increased consumer demand (panic buying).

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    The Thames Valley covers a huge geographical area, is heavily dependent on roads and has a large amount of mass transit infrastructure. There is a large take up of public transport and people and products travel many miles on a daily basis. Many essential services including the daily care of vulnerable people, are reliant on adequate fuel supplies. Where there is disruption to supply, there are subsequent impacts through delayed deliveries, higher prices, and sporadic goods shortages at supermarkets. 

    Impacts

    Consequences

    • Long delays and queue
    • Fuel station closures
    • Panic buying
    • Increased fuel prices
    • Public outrage
    • Local and national economic impact
    • many small businesses, health workers and drivers unable to do their jobs
    • commuters unable to travel to and from work
    • disruption to critical public services and supply chains 
    • knock-on consequence to individuals, businesses and the ability for organisations to deliver essential functions to the community and essential services to vulnerable individuals
    • It may take several days for business and services to resume normal supply. 
    • Loss of income and earnings and higher costs of goods and services

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • There is a National Emergency Plan for Fuel (NEP-F) produced by BEIS (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy) in co-ordination with industry and other government departments states that the majority of potential fuel supply disruptions can be addressed by measures to help industry maintain fuel supply; these would be deployed by BEIS, see the Summary of response tools in the National Emergency Plan for Fuel
    • Identification of filling stations for essential fuel users, such as emergency service vehicles
    • Production of multi-agency plan to manage fuel distribution to keep key services to the public running

    For further advice and help, see;

  • Loss of utilities, Essential Goods and Services

    Critical Infrastructure is the name given to all of the different essential services which we rely on as part of modern society and the economy. The UK’s critical infrastructure is made up of electricity, water, gas, oil/fuel, transport, telecoms, food, health and financial services. We are increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and its impact on food and water supply. Geographically Britain is an island, but economically and politically it is a vital link in the global network. That openness brings great opportunities, but also vulnerabilities particularly when the delivery of essential goods and services is linked to global supply chains. 

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    Many parts of the infrastructure network are dependent on one another e.g. electricity powers water pumping stations, and telecoms and electricity are required to allow cash machines and cash registers to function correctly. In the event of a major supply emergency, both industry and government will have significant roles to play in managing the incident and its consequences. The utility and service companies would be responsible for the practical and operational management of the incident. These companies have well established plans and procedures in place to respond to incidents, which can range from the management of a local incident to a national level disruption.

    Impacts

    Consequences

    • utilities failures (including gas, localised electricity failure, fuel, water and sewerage) 
    • financial failures (such as a loss of banking systems or other technical difficulties) 
    • telecommunications failures (fixed and mobile telephone services, and broadband) 
    • Risk to Health and Safety and immediate risk to life
    • Endangerment of vulnerable people
    • physical and psychological casualties or fatalities due to the loss of essential services, such as gas for heating 
    • Risk to health and safety
    • Disruption, delays and shortages to critical public services, and supply chains for food, goods and essential supplies leading to panic Buying, stockpiling and price rises. 
    • knock-on consequence to individuals, businesses and the ability for organisations to deliver essential functions to the community and essential services to vulnerable individuals
    • Loss of income and earnings and higher costs of goods and services

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley

    • Identification of vulnerable people who will need special support in the event of a utilities outage.
    • Work with the utility companies to manage supply interruptions to reduce local impacts to public health and safety. 
    • Production of multi-agency plans to manage long-term utilities outages and recovery.

    For further advice and help, see;

  • Pandemic

    Infectious diseases in humans take a variety of forms. Some have the potential to cause significant public health impacts, due to the number of people they might affect in a short space of time, and the severity of their symptoms. Possible scenarios range from significant outbreaks of ‘containable’ infectious diseases, which spread slowly and / or can be more easily delayed or stopped but may have a high fatality rate, through to pandemics such as COVID-19, where the whole population is at risk from a highly infectious virus, which can cause large numbers of fatalities in certain groups. 

    A pandemic can occur at any time and can occur in waves. This was seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, when waves occurred months apart and lasted a number of weeks. Up to half the population could be directly affected and there will be pressures on the workforce due to staff absence due to illness, isolation or caring responsibilities, as well as potential restrictions.

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    As a result of rapid spread from person to person, pandemics have significant global consequences on communities and economies, as well as on human health.

    Impacts

    Consequences

    It is difficult to forecast the spread and impact of a new disease until it arrives in the UK and starts circulating. However, possible impacts may include:

    • up to half of the population may fall ill during a pandemic
    • significant numbers of deaths, potentially across multiple waves, during a pandemic caused by a virus 
    • significant disruption to all sectors of society (e.g. education and businesses)
    • The wearing of face masks and PPE (Personal Protective Equipment)
    • Social distancing
    • Additional hygiene measures, such as more frequent handwashing and the use of sanitisers
    • Lockdowns being imposed
    • Restrictions on activities and social gatherings
    • Ongoing service and supply disruptions due to high staff absences 
    • Working and learning from home 
    • Antiviral medicines when available and clinically appropriate

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • Management of the demand on the NHS and social care
    • Distribution of anti-viral medication and vaccinations to the public if required
    • Public awareness and media management
    • Individual LRF organisations have their own business continuity plans in place to cope in times of staff shortage.
    • Continually learning the lessons from previous pandemics, including COVID-19, to inform preparation for future pandemics.

    For further advice and help, see;

  • Animal Disease

    Animal diseases which present the most concern are those which are highly contagious or cause high fatality rates amongst livestock. Some diseases are zoonotic, which means they can be transmitted between humans and animals, such as Avian Influenza. Good biosecurity can reduce the risk of disease exposure to your workers and members of the public who visit your farm. Within the planning work the following diseases are considered: Foot and Mouth Disease, Bluetongue, Avian Influenza, Monkey Pox, Rabies, Classical Swine Fever, West Nile Virus and Newcastle Disease. The effective prevention, detection and control of diseases in animal populations can help prevent human infections. The Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) is the Lead Authority in animal disease outbreaks and is an executive agency of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    Any animal disease within the Thames Valley area would have a significant impact on the farming and rural community as witnessed in the Foot and Mouth outbreak of 2000. Avian flu can have a detrimental effect on your business as all infected birds will have to be killed. 

    Impacts

    Consequences

    • Danger to public Health and Safety 
    • Human fatalities and physical or psychological casualties
    • Quarantine
    • Culling of infected livestock
    • Vaccination or Treatment 
    • Disposal of fallen livestock 
    • Decontamination and additional biosecurity measures
    • Monitoring and surveillance
    • Consequences to wildlife, biodiversity and the environment 
    • Loss of livelihoods and unrecoverable business damages
    • long-term psychological health impacts experienced by farmers 
    • Increased food costs to consumers 
    • Knock-on effects and disruption to tourism and rural communities and other service industries (e.g. catering) 

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • Working with The Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA ) who’s incident management plan details roles and responsibilities for all responding agencies.
    • Production of multi-agency plan for managing animal disease outbreaks. 
    • Raising disease awareness among farmers and farm workers.

    For further advice and help, see;

  • Environmental pollution, and Industrial Accidents

    Industrial accidents can take a wide variety of forms and their impacts vary considerably in both scale and nature. In some cases, these accidents will have very limited impacts beyond the immediate area and can be dealt with locally. Risks include; 

    • Fires and explosions (e.g. affecting power plants)

    • Chemical and biological contamination (such as oil spills or food contamination)

    • Radiological contamination (from nuclear accidents in the UK or abroad)

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    In December 2005, a fire occurred at the Buncefield Oil Storage Terminal, in Hemel Hempstead, England, resulting in a number of injuries. The incident also generated other impacts such as environmental contamination, interruption to aviation fuel supply, damage to surrounding businesses and domestic properties, temporary evacuations and significant economic repercussions.

    The area has a large number of visitors each year and the River Thames provides a focal point for tourism as it passes through the Thames Valley. A significant pollution incident would require a rapid and co-ordinated clean-up operation to ensure that damage to local wildlife and economy is minimised. The Thames Valley is also home to a large amount of agriculture and horticulture which could become affected by an incident involving inland controlled watercourses. The Environment Agency is the Lead Authority on environmental contamination and clean-up operations. 

    Impacts

    Consequences

    • Danger to public Health and Safety including; fatalities and physical and / or psychological casualties 
    • Pollution and Environmental contamination
    • Damage to property and infrastructure  
    • Introduction of exclusion zones 
    • Consequences to wildlife, biodiversity and the environment 
    • Long term clean up, decontamination of affected persons, property and the environment
    • Evacuation, shelter and potential relocation of affected individuals
    • Loss of livelihoods and unrecoverable business damages
    • Long-term psychological  and potential physical health impacts 

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • Working directly with site operators who manage particularly hazardous sites. Where there are Upper Tier COMAH (Control of major accident hazards ) or REPPIR (Radiation Emergency. Preparedness and Public Information Regulation) the local authorities have emergency  plans and test them regularly
    • Identification of ways and means of communicating with the public.

    For further advice 

    Find out if there are any COMAH sites near you. Operators of the biggest sites regularly issue information to the public who live and work close by identifying actions to take in the event of an incident. Familiarise yourself with any advice the local authority and the industrial site provide. This advice should always be followed in an emergency unless emergency responders give additional instructions. The Health and Safety Executive’s ‘Control of Major Accident Hazard’ COMAH website also has information on nearby major industrial facilities.

  • Transport Accidents

    Just like our dependence on basic utilities, almost all of us will rely on a form of transport either to get to and from work, or to receive essential services. The disruptive consequences of a transport emergency are far-reaching and can further endanger life. Transport emergencies can be the result of accidents but also disruption caused by severe weather such as snow and floods. The situation can be further complicated by extremes of temperature if people are trapped in their vehicles for long periods of time. Transport accidents occur across the UK on a daily basis. They happen mainly on public roads and involve private vehicles. There are well-practiced plans in place to deal with major transport accidents at a local level, involving emergency services and local authorities.

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    Road: In the Thames Valley area, the majority of roads are managed by local authorities, while the roads which form part of the UK’s strategic road network (M1, M40, M4 and A34) are managed by National Highways. Most road accidents are within the routine capabilities of the three lead emergency services. However, there is always the risk of an accident going beyond these capabilities and the need for more extended agency involvement, especially if the accident involves chemicals or hazardous materials. 

    Rail: Several main lines run from Birmingham and Wales through different parts of the Thames Valley, carrying heavy commuter and goods traffic.

    Air: RAF Brize Norton and RAF Benson are based in the Thames Valley, as well as London – Oxford Airport which has international capability. 

    Impacts

    Consequences

    • Danger to public Health and Safety including; fatalities and physical and / or psychological injury
    • disruption to essential services, particularly transport 
    • disruption to business and tourism
    • damage to property and infrastructure 
    • possible environmental contamination (such as with fuels / cargoes)
    • possible evacuation and shelter of local residents or employees
    • Ongoing transport delays, road closures and diversions 
    • Long term transport infrastructure repairs 
    • consequences to wildlife, biodiversity and the environment 
    • long term clean up, decontamination of affected persons, property and the environment
    • Local Supply chain disruption, delays and shortages in food, goods and essential supplies
    • potential relocation of affected individuals
    • Loss of livelihoods and unrecoverable business damages
    • long-term psychological  and potential physical health impacts 

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • Working with national transport companies to plan for dealing with accidents. 
    • The councils’ Highways Departments work alongside National Highways to keep all major roads accessible during times of severe weather.
    • Oxfordshire County Council MACR Site Plan (Major Accident Control Regulations) for RAF Brize Norton

    For further advice 

  • Major Fire

    Fires can start for many reasons, including: 

    • Accidents such as electrical faults, human activity which combines ignition sources and fuel such as barbecues or bonfires, or even farmers harvesting crops.

    • Malicious activity/arson.

    • Infrastructure incidents such as sparks from electricity lines or rail transport.

    • Natural phenomena such as lightning or protracted spells of hot, dry weather. 

    If conditions or circumstances support it, any fire has the potential to develop into a major fire.  

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    Summer 2022 saw a lengthy, protracted period of very hot, very dry, weather. These extreme conditions resulted in a set of natural circumstances which created an elevated risk of fire across the Thames Valley. The conditions meant fire breaking out was not only more likely, but the speed at which a fire might spread was increased and the impacts of a fire more widespread. It also impacted on the health, welfare and wellbeing arrangements for those responding to the incidents. The 19 July was an especially busy day for firefighters across Thames Valley, with temperatures above 37 degrees, humidity readings less than 30 per cent and a strong prevailing wind. These factors combined to produce the ideal conditions for wildfire. More than 300 calls were received by the Thames Valley fire services that day, and two fires were declared as Major incidents in Buckinghamshire. 

    Impacts

    Consequences

    • Danger to public health and safety including physical and/or psychological injury, or death. 
    • Damage to property, possessions and infrastructure.
    • Possible evacuation and shelter of local residents or employees.
    • Disruption to essential services, particularly transport around the local area.  
    • Possible environmental contamination
    • Ongoing transport delays, road closures and diversions.
    • Disruption to local business, communities and services.
    • Impact on business owners, employees and residents of affected properties. 
    • Long term response and recovery operations – such as clean up, decontamination of property and the environment.
    • Potential long-term or permanent relocation and resettlement of affected individuals.
    • Loss of livelihoods, property, possessions, stock and unrecoverable business damages.
    • Long-term psychological and physical health impacts.

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • All fire and rescue services have the capability to fight fires, including high-rise fires. They are also required to have mutual assistance arrangements in place with neighbouring Services to provide additional support in the event of a major incident occurring.

    For further advice on how to keep your family, home or business safe from fire:

  • Cyber crime

    The integration of the internet into our daily lives has been a continuous trend in the 21st century. Individuals, businesses, charities and government all rely on digital technology and online capability, including in the delivery of essential and public-facing services. The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasised our reliance on digital technologies, both through personal communication and our ability to work remotely. Any sector of our economy and society that uses IT networks and systems is vulnerable to the threat. Cyber crime, covers all crimes that:

    • take place online
    • are committed using computers, or
    • are assisted by online technology

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    Risks from cyber crime are many and varied, depending on the type and sophistication of attack. Information, both that individuals and businesses hold, can be lost, damaged, or stolen. Data may be held to ransom, which creates reputational and financial risks to both individuals and businesses. Cyber attacks can also affect management of utilities and the internet, changing availability of these services locally or more widely. For businesses, Cyber attacks are costly and will impact on business productivity, and may take a long time to recover from. Breeches in data releases or financial control can result in legal risks too, exacerbating the impacts further.

    Visit Cyber Aware for step-by-step instructions on keeping your devices up-to-date with the latest security updates, and for more online security advice.

     Impacts

    Consequences

    • Direct loss of funds
    • Financial exploitation or extortion
    • Disruption to business services
    • psychological distress to the vulnerable
    • Recovery costs
    • Business reputational impacts
    • Long term stress, anxiety and depression
    • Loss of public confidence

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    For further advice 

  • Terrorism

    MISSING

  • Chemical , and Nuclear

    Certain industrial activities involving dangerous substances have the potential to cause accidents. Some of these accidents may cause serious injuries to people or damage to the environment both nearby, and further away from the site of the accident. While accidents of this scale are extremely rare, the impact can be so detrimental that they fall under specific legislation. There are several competent regulators in the Thames Valley including; Health and Safety Executive (HSE), Officer for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) and the Environment Agency (EA).

    Control Of Major Accident Hazards (COMAH) 

    Some industrial processes due to the volume and type of chemicals on site are regulated under the Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations 2015 (COMAH). These regulations aim to prevent major accidents involving dangerous substances and to limit the consequences to people and the environment of any incidents that do occur. 

    The competent authorities are the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and the Environment Agency (EA). For some sites, the regulations also require the Local Authority where these sites are to prepare ‘Off-site’ Emergency Plans. Types of establishments include chemical warehousing, chemical production facilities and some distributors. 

    PUBLIC INFORMATION ZONES (PIZ) 

    Around every COMAH is an area identified by the HSE and EA which is known as the Public Information Zone (PIZ). People within the PIZ will receive information from the site owner about how the potential major hazards, the safety measures that are in place, how they may be affected by a major accident at that establishment, as well as how they will be warned and kept informed in the event of a major accident and the actions that they should take.

    REPPIR 

    There are some sites in the Thames Valley which have radioactive sources on site in high enough quantities that they are Nuclear Licensed sites. These sites are strictly regulated by the Officer for Nuclear Regulation (ONR). The Radiation (Emergency Preparedness and Public Information) Regulations 2019 (REPPIR) also require the Local Authority where these sites are to prepare ‘Off-Site’ Emergency Plans. 

    Detailed Emergency Planning Zone (DEPZ) 

    People within the DEPZ will receive information from the site owner about how the potential major hazards, the safety measures that are in place, how they may be affected by a major accident at that establishment, as well as how they will be warned and kept informed in the event of a major accident and the actions that they should take.

    Risk in the Thames Valley: 

    There are a number of sites in the Thames Valley and they are legally required to follow specific measures to manage risk. 

     Impacts

    Consequences

    • Immediate threat to public health and safety resulting in fatalities and casualties
    • Evacuation and shelter of local residents or employees
    • Damage to property and infrastructure
    • Disruption to essential services, transport, health and education
    • Decontamination and environmental damage 
    • long term psychological and physical health impacts
    • prolonged disruption to essential local services, transport, health and education
    • damage to tourism

    What Are We Doing In The Thames Valley?

    • Maintain specific site plans and annual training and exercising of specific site plans
    • Maintain Business continuity plans and individual agency security and specialist training for front line emergency service personnel

    For further advice and information